AGP Executive Report

Kaliningrad Escalation: Russia is warning NATO over alleged plans to isolate the Kaliningrad exclave, raising the nuclear rhetoric as NATO denies any blockade plans. EU Budget Fight for Slovakia: Seventeen EU leaders, including Slovakia, are pushing Ireland’s EU presidency to protect farm and regional funding (CAP and Cohesion Policy) in the 2028–2034 budget, warning cuts would weaken the bloc. Slovakia’s Coalition Budget Talks: In Bratislava, the governing coalition is moving toward agreement on next year’s state budget, with political pressure around debt-brake rules and whether to scrap the transaction tax. Transaction Tax Deadline: Slovakia’s junior coalition SNS says the transaction tax will be abolished from 31 December 2027, aiming to avoid new taxes in the state budget. Housing Costs Across Europe: House prices keep climbing across much of Europe, with Slovakia among the fastest movers in the latest data, adding pressure for households and investors. Business & Mobility: Germany confirmed EU/EFTA spouses can move to work and live without restrictions, a rule that matters for cross-border families in the region.

EU Budget Standoff: Seventeen EU leaders, including Slovakia, urged Ireland’s EU presidency to protect farm and regional funding in the 2028–2034 budget, warning that cuts to Cohesion Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy would “weaken” the bloc and undermine public support. Slovak Coalition Budget Talks: In domestic politics, Slovakia’s governing coalition is moving toward agreement on next year’s state budget, with debate still open over the controversial transaction tax and how to handle debt-brake rules. Transaction Tax Ends: The SNS says it has secured abolition of the transaction tax from 31 December 2027, aiming to avoid new taxes and highlight higher support for the oldest pensioners. Housing Watch: House prices kept rising across Europe, with Slovakia among the faster movers (up 13.6% year-on-year in Q2 2026), while some countries saw declines. Trade & Logistics: Croatia’s Adriatic Gate Container Terminal in Rijeka hit 4 million TEUs since 2011, strengthening its role as a regional gateway reaching inland markets including Slovakia. Tech & Skills: Chinese language learning is gaining traction in Slovakia, with bilingual schooling models expanding beyond language classes.

EU Budget Standoff: Seventeen EU leaders, including Slovakia, urged Irish PM Micheál Martin to protect farm and regional funding in the 2028–2034 budget, warning cuts to Cohesion Policy and the CAP would weaken the EU and undermine public support. Slovakia Tax Policy: Slovakia’s coalition partner SNS says it has pushed through abolition of the transaction tax by 31 December 2027, aiming to avoid new taxes in the next state budget. V4+India Diplomacy: Visegrad-4 foreign ministers agreed to hold annual meetings and create an annual business forum with India, targeting cooperation in technology, defence, space and connectivity. Housing Market Watch: House prices kept rising across Europe, with the biggest annual jumps reported in Portugal, Bulgaria and Slovakia, while some countries saw declines. Energy & Infrastructure: Rezolv Energy energised the first phase of Romania’s 461 MW VIFOR Wind Farm (192 MW), with Phase 2 due in 2027. Trade & Logistics: Croatia’s Adriatic Gate Container Terminal in Rijeka reached 4 million TEUs since joining ICTSI in 2011, highlighting its role as an Adriatic gateway for Central Europe. Business & Mobility: Kia says it is Europe’s fastest-growing top-10 car brand, driven by a surge in EV registrations.

Budget Talks in Slovakia: The governing coalition is edging toward an agreement on next year’s state budget, with debate focused on whether to keep the debt-brake “balanced budget” requirement and whether to scrap the controversial financial transaction tax. Tax Change: The SNS says it has secured abolition of the transaction tax effective 31 December 2027 (from 1 January 2028), alongside claims of €5m returning to the Culture Ministry and a pledge for higher pensions for people aged 85+. EU Budget Clash: Seventeen EU countries, including Slovakia, are pushing back against cuts to cohesion and the Common Agricultural Policy, warning the next 2028–2034 budget must preserve funding for farmers and poorer regions. EU Trade/Tech: Volkswagen and Chinese battery partner Gotion are expanding battery plans with new joint ventures, including in Slovakia, as Europe accelerates EV supply chains. Energy Investment: Rezolv Energy has energised the first phase of Romania’s 461 MW VIFOR Wind Farm (192 MW), with the second phase due in 2027. Business & Connectivity: Slovak Telekom is refreshing its B2B broadband offer with new BiznisNet fibre plans aimed at faster fault repair and backup options. Housing Watch: House prices keep rising across Europe, with the biggest annual jumps reported in Portugal, Bulgaria and Slovakia.

EU Budget Fight: Seventeen EU countries, including Slovakia, signed a letter urging no cuts to agriculture and cohesion funding in the 2028–2034 budget talks, setting up a direct clash with “frugal” states. Telecom & Business Services: Slovak Telekom refreshed its B2B BiznisNet broadband offer with new fibre plans for companies and self-employed, adding backup options and faster fault repair. Port & Logistics: Croatia’s Adriatic Gate Container Terminal (ICTSI) hit 4 million TEUs since 2011, underlining Rijeka’s growing role as a regional gateway reaching inland markets including Slovakia. EU Mobility Rules: The new EU EES border system is rolling out across Schengen, with Slovakia among participating states—raising questions for travellers after reports of queues and delays. EU–China Battery Push: Volkswagen’s PowerCo and China’s Gotion agreed battery joint ventures in Spain, Slovakia and Morocco to expand LFP production. Slovak Politics & Budget Risk: Slovakia’s coalition faces uncertainty after the environment minister was dismissed and Fico took over the portfolio, with the 2027 budget vote now a key test.

Slovak Telecom Business: The operator refreshed its BiznisNet broadband for companies and self-employed, adding Nonstop BiznisNet Smart and Profi with Mobile Backup, Power Backup and faster fault repair. Slovak Politics & Budget Risk: Robert Fico took over the environment portfolio after parliament ousted Tomáš Taraba, but the coalition’s majority looks shaky ahead of the 2027 budget vote. EU Border Rules (EES): New entry/exit biometric checks are rolling out across Schengen, with many UK travellers facing longer queues and more paperwork. Slovak Energy Deal: The state will buy ČEZ’s 49% stake in JESS for €189.4m to unblock plans for a new Jaslovské Bohunice nuclear plant. EU Sanctions Back-and-Forth: Ukraine says it will respond to the EU delisting of Russian oligarchs Usmanov and Fridman with sanctions on 20-plus names. Housing Market Snapshot: Eurostat data shows Slovakia’s house prices up 13.6% year-on-year, while Hungary’s growth cooled after a strong run.

Competition Watch: Slovakia’s business environment gets a jolt as the Office for the Protection of Competition imposed CZK 1.942bn in fines on cable makers over a cartel on “metal surcharges,” with one firm exempted for reporting the deal; the decision can still be appealed. Public Transport Relief: Slovakia will cut suburban bus and regional-capital public transport fares by 50% for 30 days from Oct. 12, with state subsidies totalling about €12.85m, aiming to blunt high fuel costs. Macroeconomic Signals: The NBS lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% and lowered inflation to 3.6%, citing resilient labour markets and improving exports. Auto & Industry Investment: Volkswagen and Gotion plan €3.22bn in battery and materials projects across Europe and North Africa, including a Slovak battery JV in Šurany. Local Manufacturing Push: Hyundai Wia started full operation of its new Slovak plant in Martin, targeting a bigger share of European drivetrain and thermal management parts. EU–China Trade Pressure: The EU is setting a mid-October deadline for China to reduce its trade advantage, warning of import limits and tariffs if no changes come. Tech & Cyber: ESET rolled out a revamped ESET PROTECT portfolio for the AI era, positioning cybersecurity as a service for channel partners.

Battery Investment in Slovakia: Volkswagen and Chinese Gotion plan a €3.66bn push to build EV battery and materials capacity across Europe and North Africa, including a €480m Gotion project in Slovakia (8.4 GWh cells) alongside Valencia (29.1 GWh) and Morocco (LFP cathode materials). Coalition Politics: Prime Minister Robert Fico says Smer-SD is ready to work with SNS to finalise the environment minister appointment after Parliament voted to oust SNS nominee Tomáš Taraba. Economic Outlook: Slovakia’s Finance Ministry forecasts 0.8% GDP growth in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, citing improving consumption and exports, with Volvo ramp-up as a key boost. EU Security & Ukraine Aid: EU discussions intensify on tighter monitoring of Ukraine funding amid corruption concerns, while Bulgaria’s Rumen Radev urges diplomatic engagement with Russia to reduce nuclear risk. Cybersecurity for the AI era: ESET rolled out a revamped ESET PROTECT portfolio aimed at channel partners, shifting toward cybersecurity-as-a-service with new AI security and managed protection tiers. Defense Procurement: Latvia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic signed a trilateral deal for 155mm “Morana” artillery systems, with EU SAFE financing and gradual localization in Latvia.

EU Trade & Industry: EU officials warn the bloc’s China trade deficit is “existential,” while Spain, Hungary and battery giants push ahead with new EV and LFP capacity despite pressure to curb Chinese imports. Slovakia Macro Outlook: Slovakia’s Finance Ministry forecasts 0.8% growth in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, citing easing inflation, improving household consumption and production support from Volvo. Fuel & Transport Costs: From Oct 1, Slovak fuel stations face a capped retail margin of 10 cents/litre, and second-class train fares are cut by 50% for 30 days. Politics in Bratislava: Parliament voted to remove Environment Minister Tomáš Taraba, raising coalition stability questions. EU-Ukraine Oversight: The EU is debating tighter monitoring of Ukraine aid as corruption concerns intensify. Battery Deal Watch: Volkswagen and Gotion plan new LFP ventures in Europe, with product split tied to demand. Azerbaijan-Slovakia Defense & Business: Slovakia and Azerbaijan are deepening a strategic partnership, including a joint automated mortar system showcased at ADEX-2026 and talks on further joint ventures. Public Safety: A knife attack at a Slovak elementary school killed one teacher and injured two.

Fuel & Transport Policy: From Oct 1, Slovakia caps fuel station retail margins at 10 cents per litre to curb price pressure, while also cutting second-class train fares by 50% for 30 days and offering municipal bus-fare support. Parliament & Coalition Tensions: The National Council voted 77-0 to withdraw confidence from Environment Minister Tomáš Taraba, raising stakes for Prime Minister Robert Fico’s already narrow coalition majority. EU Security & Ukraine Aid: Slovakia will receive an extra €105m from the EU Peace Facility for military equipment supplied to Ukraine, as Germany and Slovakia jointly push for stronger sanctions pressure on Russia. Diplomacy With Germany: Foreign ministers Juraj Blanár and Germany’s Johann Wadephul met in Bratislava to discuss migration, energy, EU budget priorities and enlargement. Defense Industry Link-Up: Slovakia will present a joint automated mortar system with Azerbaijan at ADEX-2026, alongside a Slovak pavilion featuring local defence firms. Battery Supply Chain Push: Volkswagen, PowerCo and Gotion agreed three joint ventures for LFP batteries and cathode materials across Spain, Slovakia and Morocco, with major investment and production capacity aimed at Europe’s EV ramp-up. Health & Social Pressure Points: Eurostat data shows cardiovascular disease remains the top EU killer, while Slovakia’s education debate highlights how socio-economic factors still weigh heavily on PISA outcomes.

EU Defence Funding: The EU will pay Slovakia an extra €105 million via the European Peace Facility to compensate for military equipment supplied to Ukraine, with the current government shifting from state donations to allowing commercial supplies by Slovak firms. Battery & Auto Supply Chain: Gotion will invest €1.1bn in Volkswagen’s Valencia battery plant, taking a 49% stake, while PowerCo will also back projects tied to Slovakia’s Šurany cell factory and Morocco’s cathode materials—another sign of how CEE battery plans are being reshaped by Chinese partners. Local Industry Expansion: Vertiv is expanding its Nové Mesto nad Váhom campus with 22,000 m² of new manufacturing space for power and thermal management for AI-era data centres. Security & Business Risk: Estonia says an arson attack on Milrem Robotics was sabotage ordered by Russian secret services, while separate EU-wide raids targeted a €300m phone-fraud scheme. Public Services Watchdog: Slovakia’s Audit Office warns of a €8–10bn water infrastructure renewal backlog as underinvestment and weak price regulation stall upgrades. Energy Market Pressure: A new analysis highlights the looming impact of the EU’s Russian LNG ban taking full effect in January during a tight winter gas outlook. Labour Mobility: Slovakia and the Philippines set up a labour consultation mechanism to improve recruitment, credential recognition and job matching.

Slovakia’s Data-Centre Push: Vertiv is expanding its Nové Mesto nad Váhom campus by 22,000 sqm over the next two years, boosting power and cooling output for AI and high-performance computing, with “hundreds” of new jobs planned for 2027–2029. EV Battery Deal in Slovakia: Volkswagen and Gotion are deepening a European battery supply chain with joint ventures in Valencia, Šurany (Slovakia) and Morocco, while VW sells a 5.3% stake in Gotion; the Šurany site is set for LFP-related production. EU Rules Hit Business: The EU pay transparency rollout is still patchy across member states, creating compliance headaches for employers operating across borders, with Slovakia among the few that met the deadline. Energy Security & Sanctions: Lithuania starts national sanctions against Russian oligarchs Usmanov and Fridman after EU delisting, while EU countries debate a NATO-style emergency protocol to respond to Russian hybrid warfare. Labour Mobility: The Philippines and Slovakia set up a labor consultation mechanism to coordinate recruitment, credential recognition and employment opportunities. Business-Adjacent Geopolitics: V4 countries back India’s bid for a reformed UN Security Council, linking trade, defence and tech ties.

EU Defence Industry: EU ministers have formally named the first five “projects of common interest” for joint defence, spanning drones/counter-drones, maritime & seabed defence, space, federated air & missile defence, and eastern-flank surveillance, with an ambition of ~€190bn by 2036 and an initial €325m EDIP funding pot for 2025–2027. Slovakia Mobility & Industry: Škoda will supply eight electric trains to ZSSK for long-distance services, with deliveries planned for 2032–2033 and a 10-year maintenance package. Energy & Trade: Slovakia is in talks on Azerbaijani gas supplies, targeting about 1.2bn m³ annually after 2027, while Croatia pushes gas storage to at least 85% by October. EU Sanctions Politics: EU Russia sanctions are increasingly tied to national bargaining, as capitals trade blacklist changes for unrelated concessions. Fuel Market Pressure: The EU urged the US to avoid a diesel export ban, warning it could disrupt shared markets. Slovakia EV Push: Slovakia’s battery EV fleet and fast-charging network both rose sharply in the first half of 2026. Business & Culture: Via TV launches in Slovakia as a nationwide student channel, and Slovak researchers developed biodegradable algae-based bioplastics.

Electric Rail Push: Škoda Group and ŽOS Trnava will supply ZSSK with eight new electric trains for long-distance services, with first deliveries planned for 2032–2033 and a 10-year maintenance package. EV Momentum: Slovakia’s battery EV fleet hit 33,379 by end-June (+65% y/y) while public charging grew to 3,707 points across 1,375 locations (+capacity to 343 MW). Energy & Diplomacy: Slovakia held talks in Baku on potential Azerbaijani gas supplies, with plans to buy about 1.2 bcm annually after 2027. Fuel Pressure: Petrol and diesel prices in Slovakia climbed to record highs for a fifth straight week, pushing calls for margin limits and an EU emergency summit. Bioplastics Breakthrough: Slovak researchers at BioX Technologies developed an algae-based biodegradable bioplastic aimed at replacing fossil-fuel plastics. Trade & Industry Outlook: The EU set terms for a €1bn industrial heat auction to cut emissions from process heat, with bids expected to open in early December. Security Spillover: German investigators linked an arson attack near Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing in Munich to Russian military intelligence, with alleged operatives tied to Slovakia. Regional Business Strategy: A V4+India foreign ministers meeting in New York backed deeper cooperation in trade, tech and defence, including support for India’s UN Security Council bid.

Rail Modernisation: Škoda, with ŽOS Trnava, has signed a deal to supply Slovakia with eight new electric trains for ZSSK long-distance services, with first deliveries planned for 2032–2033 and an option for seven more units. EV Momentum: Slovakia’s battery EV fleet jumped to 33,379 by end-June (+65% year-on-year) while public charging expanded to 3,707 points across 1,375 locations (+capacity to 343 MW). Energy & Gas Talks: Slovakia advanced discussions on Azerbaijani gas purchases, targeting about 1.2 bcm annually after 2027, as talks continued in Baku. Industrial Decarbonisation: The European Commission set terms for a €1bn EU auction to cut industrial process-heat emissions, with support for electrification, renewables and even nuclear tech. Fuel Pressure: Slovakia’s petrol and diesel prices hit historic highs, with diesel up 33.7% and petrol up 21.1% over the year, prompting calls for margin limits and an EU emergency summit. Bioplastics Push: Slovak researchers developed an algae-based biodegradable bioplastic aimed at reducing reliance on fossil-fuel plastics. V4+India Diplomacy: Visegrád countries and India agreed to deepen cooperation across trade, tech and defence, backing India’s UN Security Council bid. Food Industry Spotlight: Saudifood and Saudifood Manufacturing open in Jeddah tomorrow, bringing 1,000+ exhibitors and 100,000+ products across the F&B value chain.

EV Push in Slovakia: Slovakia’s battery-electric fleet jumped to 33,379 vehicles by end-June (+65% year-on-year), while public charging expanded to 3,707 points across 1,375 locations and 343 MW total capacity—growth that is outpacing EV adoption. Energy & Costs: Fuel prices hit historic highs again: petrol averaged €1.853/l (+21.1%) and diesel €1.95/l (+33.7%), renewing calls for profit-margin limits and an EU emergency summit. Gas Talks: Slovakia advanced discussions with Azerbaijan on post-2027 gas supplies, targeting about 1.2 bcm annually, with talks held during the Azerbaijan International Investment Forum in Baku. EU Industrial Decarbonisation: The European Commission set terms for a €1bn industrial heat auction to cut process-heat emissions, with bids expected to open in early December and support for electrification, renewables and even nuclear tech. Banking Deal: Erste Group plans a tender offer to raise its stake in Erste Bank Polska by up to 26% (to above 50% but not over 75%), aiming to deepen exposure to Poland. Workforce Compliance: UK authorities fined three businesses after Home Office raids over illegal workers, including a £135k penalty tied to a car wash.